Election 2008: The Democratic Presidential Candidates

-The author of this list is a Democrat. He does not claim to be neutral. The focus of this list, however, is accurately assessing the electoral prospects of each candidate, not advocating a certain point of view. It should be of use to people of all political beliefs.

It's never too early to speculate on the next presidential election. You can be sure the potential candidates are speculating on it as we speak. This election will be even more decisive than the one in 2004. A Democratic loss would set the party on course to permanent minority status. A win would provide for an opportunity to pack half of the Supreme Court. For those who resist the Bush agenda, the most important election in American history will occur in November 2008. It is never too early to speculate on its victor.

2008 of course will be a free-for-all, with both parties having perfectly competitive primaries. The main determent for a Republican candidate will be, I believe, a socially conservative background. The social conservative special interests have been clamoring for more clout over policy, and they will demand a socially conservative candidate in 2008 to further Bush's lukewarm agenda. On the Democratic side, all that matters is winning. This fact would give the upper hand to a candidate from the South or West, the conventional wisdom being that only a redstater can avoid John Kerry's fate. (As if this wisdom served Tennessean Al Gore very well.) This picture should favor the Democrats, with the outside possibility that the Republicans will nominate a nutcase in the Goldwater tradition, and with the very good possibility at least that infighting will weaken whichever candidate emerges.

The Also Rans

John Kerry- The Democratic nominee in 2004 would be mad to try again. Once the perception of being a loser seems into the public's mind, it is hard to dislodge. Al Gore, perhaps, could have pulled it off, but only because he could make a great case for why he didn't really lose. John Kerry lost by 3 million votes, ran a lousy campaign, and only got the nomination because people didn't have a credible alternative. He has no chance of being nominated.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 1 VP Pick: 0

Al Gore- So what about that other man to "lose" to George W. Bush? Al Gore is a much better politician than John Kerry, both in his policies and in his campaign style. But he's been off the radar for far too long, and has marginalized himself by allying with the loosing primary candidate Howard Dean. I think he could have done it in 2004, but 2008 is a stretch.
Will Run: 1 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 0

John Edwards- Although the man certainly has the unusual combination of Bill Clinton's charisma and Joe Lieberman’s integrity, he's never shaken the image of being a "lightweight". I don't think that criticism is all that unfair. His one term in the Senate was far from accomplished, the last third of which was spent running for the presidency. Now, without a political role to play, Edwards has no opportunity to prove himself. The ambition is there however, and I bet that Edwards will run in 2008. His inexperience, loss in 2004, and his three year absence from the public view will sink him pretty fast.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 0

The Heavywieghts

Hillary Clinton- Sen. Hillary Clinton is the smart money choice for the nomination. She is the only viable candidate with significant name recognition, a shrewd politician, and would have the backing of most of the establishment. Unfortunately, she is an inexplicably polarizing figure. The Republican press figured out a while ago that a smart, ambitious, well-known woman would be a formidable candidate at any level. It has thus been engaged in a decade-long smear campaign that has somehow painted the moderate Clinton as a rabid socialist. The success of this campaign would be hard to undo. The Republicans have been preparing for a second Clinton presidency for years, and by the time Hillary enters the race, it may be too late to win the public over. Pity. But if electability is the Democrat's number one priority, Hillary Clinton's high negativity ratings will more than cancel out her high name recognition. Nevertheless, she may just have enough steam get through the primaries. If she does, it's the Republicans who would be cheering.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 4 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 2

Howard Dean- Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean seems pretty committed to becoming chair of the Democratic National Committee, which would preclude a run for the presidency. Should he not be chosen as the chair, I don't believe there is much chance he would be interested in the nomination. You can only run an insurgency campaign once, and his ran out of gas in Iowa last year. The taint of loosing is even stronger on Dean than it is on Kerry. Despite his loyal base and good Internet organization, he will stand no chance should he decide to run in 2008.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 2
Update: Howard Dean has been elected chair of the DNC. He is unlikely to seek the nomination

Joe Biden- One of my favorites and a sure contender in 2008 is Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware. The man is probably the most personable of all the possible '08 candidates, seeming very comfortable with the media and in the spotlight. The only reason why he was not a contender in 2004 was a personal promise he made to not undercut John Kerry. A moderate on all fronts. His name recognition isn't great, but I say he shines in the primaries and wins the general election if nominated. He has already been quoted as saying he's running.
Will Run: 5 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 4 VP Pick: 3

Barrack Obama- As a moderate superstar, Sen. Obama would be a formidable primary and general election candidate and this fact could induce him to run in '08. I have a feeling that Obama is too cautious to pull a John Edwards and risk everything on a presidential run before even completing one term in the Senate. Watch for Obama to sit it out and accept the Vice-Presidential nomination should it come his way.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 4 Win General: 4 VP Pick: 4

Charles Shumer- The powerful Senator from New York raised way too much money in his 2004 cakewalk to reelection to not be considering the presidency. As head of the Democrat's effort to retake the Senate in 2006, Shumer will not be challenging Elliot Spitzer for Albany's top job. That leaves 2008 open, and there's a good chance he will run. Something tells me that one New York Senator running for the Presidency is enough however, and that Shumer will drop out early in the process if he decides to run at all. If he successfully steers the Democrat's gain in the Senate, Shumer may choose to remain in the majority.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 3

The Southern Strategy

Mike Easley- The last two Democratic presidents have been Southern governors, and conventional wisdom holds that only a redstate governor can win in 2008. That wisdom may or may not be right, it is dangerous to take lessons from past presidential campaigns seeing as how small the statistical sample is. Nevertheless there are Southern governors who would be formidable candidates in any case. Governor Mike Easley of North Carolina is a prime example. The consensus is that his term as governor has been a success, and he easily won reelection in 2004 in a state that John Kerry lost by fifteen points. His term conveniently runs out in 2008 and his candidacy would automatically put fifteen electoral votes in play. His record of bipartisanship should appeal to independents in a way the Republican candidate most likely won't. Could be a lock-down candidate in the primaries and the general if he decides to run.
Will Run: 3 WIn Primary: 3 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 2

Mark Warner- The Governor of Virginia has many of the same advantages as Gov. Easley, a moderate Southerner with a history of reaching across the aisle. He as the added advantage of being somewhat of a capitol insider, governing much of metropolitan D.C. Warner is a bit inexperienced, and may go for the Senate in 2006 instead. His moderation may hurt him in the primary process, but would be a huge advantage in the general.
Will Run: 3 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 4 VP Pick: 3

Phil Bredesen - The Governor of Tennessee(yes we really do govern three southern states!), Bredesen is a self made millionaire and former mayor of Nashville. Seemingly popular, Bredesen is described as the next Bill Clinton (hopefully without the scandal). Tennessee’s electoral votes could be crucial to the election. The matchup between him and Easley should be interesting, with both having a real shot at the nomination and the presidency.
Will Run: 3 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 4 VP Pick: 3

Other Redstaters

Evan Bayh- This Indiana Senator seems like a good choice if you buy the idea that the next nominee must be from a red state. However, his electoral success in Indiana stems mostly from his family's political heritage in the state, not any appeal or charisma of his own. He seems to want to run, but will most likely be outshone by his hipper southern competitors.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 3

Bill Richardson- The Governor of New Mexico has many of the things the Southern Governors have, executive experience, red state popularity, and a favorable election calendar. He also has extensive foreign policy experience and Latino heritage. If this sounds too good to be true, it is. Richardson is lackluster on the campaign trail and not very good on television. These things matter in a modern campaign. Still Richardson would make a formidable candidate should he suddenly undergo the James Carville makeover. All of this may be mooted, however, by his closeness to the Clintons. Should Hillary run it is unlikely Richardson would get in her way. She may be Hillary's first choice as VP, however.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 4

The Unexpecteds

Elliot Spitzer- The attorney general of New York is pretty much guaranteed to be Governor Spitzer two years from now, but his future after Albany is uncertain. The timing is horrible for a presidential run, just a year after taking office, he would seem untested as an executive. Nevertheless Spitzer has a lot of things going for him and his anti-corruption drive has nationwide appeal. Watch for Governor Spitzer to sit this one out. That said he should be everybody’s VP short list.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 4 VP Pick: 4

Jennifer Granholm- As a Michigander I cannot express how disappointed I am that the parents of our Governor decided to move to the United States after their daughter Jennifer was born, and not before. Because Ms. Granholm was born in Canada she is constitutionally disqualified from running for President or Vice-President. Ironically, she would probably be the most qualified candidate in 2008. She's a woman, which should stop the defection of women to the Republican Party, she's from a crucial swing state, she's a governor, and she lacks the polar effect of Hillary Clinton. There is a fairly serious movement to amend the constitution to allow for foreign-born citizens to run (mostly because of Arnold Schwarzenegger's ambitions). Changing the constitution is a long process, however, and as soon as the Republican's realize that Granholm would slaughter Arnold in a general election, they're unlikely to expedite the process. A lot can happen in four years, however.
Will Run: 1 Win Primary: 4 Win General: 5 VP Pick: 1

Harold Ford Jr. - This Tennessee Representative is certainly the most impressive young democrat to emerge aside from Sen. Obama. Also black, Ford could become the first serious black contender since Jessie Jackson. He is far more ambitious than anyone else in Washington (hard to believe, but true) and will certainly go for either the Senate in 2006 or the Presidency in 2008. Although he'll be facing tough competition, his drive and charisma could easily take him all way.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 3
Update: Ford has announced a run for Senate in '06, win or loose, unlikely to run in '08.

This list is pretty extensive, but by no means complete. 2008 is completely wide open and any one of the red state governors or senators should have a chance. A possible former General may emerge, or a successful businessperson. Since 2008 is going to be bruising through both cycles, however, I expect a pair of seasoned politicians to be the odds-on choice. Clinton/ Richardson and Easley/ Spitzer are some likely pairs.

Updates:

Russ Fiengold~more soon

Barbra Boxer~more soon

Jon Corizine- moore soo