Election 2008 : The Republican Presidential Candidates

-The author of this list is a Democrat. He does not claim to be neutral. The focus of this list, however, is accurately assessing the electoral prospects of each candidate, not advocating a certain point of view. It should be of use to people of all political beliefs.

For the first time in a long time the incumbent party has neither a President nor a Vice-President as a possibility for the next nomination. This should prove to be a bruising fight, all the more so because the overconfident Republicans will probably try to overreach and favour ideological candidates over electable candidates. Arlen Specter's primary battle in 2004 is a sign of things to come. Hopefully whoever emerges will be weakly staggering to a resounding general election defeat.

The Bushites

Sen. Bill Frist- I sure hope Bill Frist gets nominated. This guy comes off as just plain creepy on TV and lacks any semblance of substance aside from being a "team player". Republicans would be wise to reject Frist, and no doubt they will. Frist is stepping down from the senate in 2006, and its looking like he has his eye in the prize. Good luck Bill.

Will Run: 3 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick:2

Gov. Jeb Bush- If George W. Bush won the presidency based on his last name, his brother Jeb will lose his chance at the presidency for the same reason. A charismatic, popular governor from the largest swing state of all should be a favorite for the nomination. Fortunately, three Bushes in four presidents is a little much, even for Republicans. Jeb will most likely save himself the embarrassment and continue governing one of the largest states in the union.
Will Run: 1 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 1

Gov. Bill Owens- The Governor of Colorado has been widely viewed as a success, and his term conveniently expires in 2007. His positions are close to Bush's, pro-business and hugging the Christian Right, but not too tightly. He is better positioned than anyone on the hard right to "fake" a move to the center, as Bush did in 2000. He seems to have every intention of entering the race.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 4

Rudy Giuliani- The well known former mayor of New York is the most hyped candidate of the 2008 election. However the hype isn't backed up by any sense. The liberal positions that Giuliani has taken on abortion and social issues should pretty much doom him in an open Republican primary lacking the immediacy of 2000's, where a Republican loss would have shut them out of the White House for at least 12 years, and probably 16. The Republican notion of "principles" (meaning bashing gays and teenage mothers) will dominate the nomination process, and Giuliani will be left out. That, however, is the least of his problems. The Bernard Kerik fiasco was the tip of the iceberg of corruption in the Giuliani administration, and I have a feeling that his creepy, Putinesque cadre of confidants has more skeletons in its closet. With the attacks on New York seven years in the past, Giuliani’s only redeeming characteristic may be fading into the distance by '08. With nothing to do until then, Giuliani’s star is fading fast. Of course Giuliani himself knows none of this, and will run. Watch him be hyped bigger than Howard Dean, and crash just as spectacularly.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 4

Condoleezza Rice- The Secretary of State offers Republicans with a tempting situation to appeal to minorities and women. Nominating a black woman, however, to head a party whose voters are disproportionately white men would be a dangerous strategy, especially if the Democrats nominate a Southern man, as appears likely. Although the Republican party is less overtly racist than it was in Nixon's day, the "Southern Strategy" of appealing to Southern whites disenchanted with the Democrats' civil rights program, still makes up a huge part of its electoral map. It is unlikely that Republican primary voters, particularly in South Carolina, would accept a black woman. Ms. Rice has other disadvantages, particularly the fact that she has never held elective office and spent most of her career in academia. The fact that she was National Security Advisor at the time of the terrorist attacks doesn’t help either. Ms. Rice is a smart woman and knows she doesn’t stand a chance. She'll stay out of politics in 2008.
Will Run: 1 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 2

The Outsiders

Sen. John McCain- John McCain's 2000 campaign was destroyed by Karl Rove's dirty tricks in South Carolina. The man who should be President will most likely run again, despite his advancing years. He has massive swing appeal, and is strong on national defence. Unlike most of the Republican mavericks, McCain has solid socially conservative credentials (people usually forget this). He's as anti-abortion as anyone in congress. He may be the only person who could possibly survive both the primaries, by appealing to the hard-right, and the general, by appealing to substantial number of democrats. The Republican's best chance in 2008.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 4 Win General: 4 VP Pick: 0

Gov. George Pataki- This New York Governor looked like a contender until he started being upstaged at home by his own Attorney General. Pataki will likely step aside in 2006 and save himself the embarrassment of loosing to Elliot Spitzer. Having to avoid reelection in his own state is no way to start a campaign for the presidency. He likely wouldn't survive the socially conservative litmus test anyway, and would probably loose his own state in a general election.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 2

Sen. Chuck Hagel- The Nebraska Senator is a bit of a McCain style moderate, and has a chance in 2008. He seems acceptable to the hard right, and not too objectionable to centrists. The adjective used to describe him is usually "internationalist", meaning he is both experienced in foreign affairs and has a sensible opinion on it. A nice change of pace from Bush, but the role of centrist maverick candidate is already filled by Sen. McCain.
Will Run: 3 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 3 VP Pick: 4

Gov. Mitt Romney- This Massachusetts governor may be an appealing candidate in 2008. He is a relatively moderate governor who still has managed to gain credibility with the Christian Right because of his Mormon faith. In what may be seen as a prelude to a primary contest, Romney seems eager to fight Democrats in Massachusetts on stem cell research. Romney, however, is very likely to loose his own state in 2008 and it is unclear if the Southern and Western states that form the backbone of the Republican electoral map would prefer a New Englander over someone from closer to home. Much of Bush's success in the South is due to his contrived accent and interest in hunting. Romney seems unlikely to repeat Mr. Bush's New Englander to Southerner transformation. Hasn't attracted much attention, but his unpopularity at home means he'll probably risk all the marbles and go for it in 2008.
Will Run: 4 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 3

The New Goldwaters

Newt Gingrich-My favorite scenario for 08 has the Republicans nominating a completely unelectable wackjob because the Christian Right axis wants to make a stand on "principle". A candidate who takes the jolly Texan mask off of the heartless ideology of the Republicans, and expose it for what it really is. No candidate can fit that bill better than Newt Gingrich. The disgraced former Speaker of the House (who resigned as speaker after revealing that during all those years of trying to impeach President Clinton for having an affair, he too was having one) still has enough cult appeal amongst certain elements of the Republican Party to be a contender. He will surely fail in his quest for the Presidency, as he failed to bring down Clinton. But let's hope he tries. He has been quoted as expressing interest in a run and will most likely do so if he feels he has a shot.
Will Run: 3 Win Primary: 3 Win General: 1 VP Pick: 2

Sen. Tom Coburn- The man who was once so worried about the rampant outbreak of lesbianism in a rural Okalahoma county that he advised teachers to send little girls to the bathroom "one at a time" gives no indication that he is interested in a run for the Presidency. The man seems to have a strange sense of public mission in Washington, and an almost unbelievable disinterest in seeking power for power's sake. He is not a greatly gifted speaker, and his positions are so extreme (advocating the death penalty for doctors who perform abortions) that he is unlikely even to survive a primary. But should he enter a primary he will force the whole lot to move to the right to cut off his support, serving as a Pat Buchanan of the new century. This could damage the Republicans in the general election.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 1 VP Pick: 1

Sen. Rick Santorum- This Pennsylvania Senator is number two on my "how in the hell did he get elected?" list, Tom Coburn being number one. Unlike Coburn, Santorum faces reelection between now and '08. I have a hard time believing that a state that has voted for Gore and Kerry and whose Republican voters supported the liberal Arlen Specter in 2004 will reelect the most comically conservative man in congress since Gingrich himself. (Republicans are worried too. Santorum was strategically placed directly behind GW Bush at the inauguration)His job should be Ed Randell's for the taking, and probably anyone else's for that matter. His loss in '06 should stop any presidential ambitions in their tracks. Pity. Santorum would loose the general election. However, even if he does squeak out a win in 2006 there are far more qualified candidates on the hard right to upstage him.
Will Run: 2 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 1 VP Pick: 2

Rep. Tom Tancredo- Anti-immigration advocate Tancredo perhaps has the greatest chance of destablizing the Republican primary. He champions an issue that is as dangerous as it is popular, immigration reform. The issue plays very well to the far-right republican primary voters, yet a cutthroat battle over immigration could easily make the Republican party seen xenophobic and archaic. Although unlikely to win, he could force the whole field to get into the messy issue of immigration reform, and tie the hands of the Republican winner by getting him to promise some sort of anti-immigrant action. That, combined with a Hispanic on the Democratic ticket, could swing Latinos.
Will Run: 3 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 1

The Unexpecteds

Bill O'Reilly- The conservative Fox News host has real power over huge swaths of America. He also is detested by just as many swaths. His politics are actually more palatable than Bush's, with a libertarian streak counteracting his pandering [sic] to the Christian Right. Thankfully, we'll never have to assuage ourselves with such lesser of two evils thoughts, for O'Reilly has no chance of the nomination. Not only is political experience a necessity in a post 9/11 world, but O'Reilly, like Giuliani, has scandal written all over him. His self aggrandizing personality and famous temper would put serious doubts into voters concerning his fitness to be commander in chief. Bill O'Rielly will get into politics, but not in '08 and not at the presidential level. Watch for him to consider taking on Hillary in '06.
Will Run: 1 Win Primary: 2 Win General: 2 VP Pick: 1