The New Swing States: Colorado

Electoral Votes: 9
Vote 2004: 52: 47 Bush
Party ID: 38 Rep, 29 Dem, 33 Ind
Governor: Bill Owens (R)

Colorado has recently been the unlikely scene of several big Democratic victories. Democrat Ken Salazar was elected to the US Senate in 2004, and his brother was elected to the US House in a mostly rural district. The state Democratic parties also captured both houses of the Colorado legislature in 2004, for the first time in decades. There are rumors that Mr. Salazar may run for the open governorship in 2006, with Bill Owens term limited and likely seeking the presidency.

These positive trends are amplified by Colorado's changing demographics. The state already has a Latino population of 18 percent, and that is rapidly rising. In 2004, however, only 8 percent of the voters were Latino. John Kerry captured a very impressive 68% them. Any increase either in voter registration among Latino voters or the total Latino population should prove to be a major help for the Democrats. The fact that the highest profile Latino in politics represents the state in the Senate as a Democract should help keep that bloc Democratic as well.

The demographic changes in Colorado are also occuring at a rapid pace, with a healthy 6% annual population growth rate. At this rate Colorado's population is set to increase nearly 15% by 2008. The new arrivals have a stong chance of being Latino Democratic voters, and most of this population growth is occuring in the Denver/Boulder metropolitian area where Democrats are already strong. The strong rural support for the Salazar brothers may make voters outside this area more likely to consider a Democratic president as well.

Colorado last voted Democratic in a presidental election in 1992 when a large vote for Ross Perot gave the state to Bill Clinton. Recent Democratic victories at both the State and Federal level, however, and the state's strongly Democratic and fastly growing Latino population should put it in play in 2008.