The New Swing States: New Mexico

Electoral Votes: 5
Vote 2004: 50:49 Bush
Party ID: Rep 33, Dem 40, Ind 27
Governor: Bill Richardson (D)

New Mexico is set apart from its neighbors to the north and west in many ways, but like the others it is a crucial swing state in 2008. New Mexico's population growth rate is actually lower than the national average, assuring that the demographics in this state divided more evenly than Florida won't change much in four years. And New Mexico already has the high percentage of Latinos residing in the state that its neighbors will see soon, the highest in the nation in fact at 42%.

Latinos in New Mexico, however, are quite different from the populations currently building in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. Many Latino families here are not recent immigrants at all, in fact a great number have roots in the state pre-dating American settlement. The conventional wisdom is that this demographic is less likely to vote Democratic because the immediate issues of immigration and poverty are not as important to them as recent arrivals, and therefore they are free to vote based on social issues, such as abortion. This wisdom is pretty much right, with John Kerry winning Latinos in New Mexico by half the margin as a nation as a whole, and actually loosing women in the state to George Bush (presumably because of New Mexican Latino women's conservative moral values.) It is also unsettling that New Mexico in 2004 showed the reversal of the national age trends, with John Kerry gaining more support among older voters and George Bush among the young.

All is not lost in New Mexico, however. The vote here was closer than anywhere in the nation in 2004, and much of John Kerry's loss here can be put upon the candidate himself. A Latino on the ticket in 2008 would most likely swing the state democratic. Governor Bill Richardson is the popular Latino governor here, and despite the fact that he could not carry the state for John Kerry, if Governor Richardson is on the 2008 ticket, New Mexico is certain to be in the Democratic column.