The New Swing States: Nevada

Electoral Votes: 5
Vote 2004: 51:48 Bush
Party ID: 39 Rep, 35 Dem, 26 Ind
Governor: Kenny Guin (R)

Nevada is like a fast paced version of the changes occurring in the Southwest. Its three year rate of population growth is an astonishing 12.2%, almost four times the national average. At this rate Nevada's population is set to increase greatly by 2008.

Latinos here make up about a fifth of the population, but are underrepresented at about a tenth of voters. They went for John Kerry by a healthy 60% in 2004. A concerted effort to register Latinos alone probably would have given Democrats the state in 2004, and should be a top priority for 2008.

Nevada's income demographics are interesting compared to its neighbors. In most states George Bush has won over the poorest voters with social issues, and the richest voters with his economic policies, leaving the Democrats to fight for the middle classes. Nevada however looks more like old-school economic warfare with John Kerry winning by 20 points among the poorest income groups, splitting the middle classes, and loosing the rich badly. This tendency to vote on economic interests should help the Democrats, especially as many of the recent arrivals are poorer immigrants working in the leisure industries.