Saturday, March 26, 2005
The New Swing States: Nevada
Electoral Votes: 5
Vote 2004: 51:48 Bush
Party ID: 39 Rep, 35 Dem, 26 Ind
Governor: Kenny Guin (R)
Latinos here make up about a fifth of the population, but are underrepresented at about a tenth of voters. They went for John Kerry by a healthy 60% in 2004. A concerted effort to register Latinos alone probably would have given Democrats the state in 2004, and should be a top priority for 2008.
The New Swing States: New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5
Vote 2004: 50:49 Bush
Party ID: Rep 33, Dem 40, Ind 27
Governor: Bill Richardson (D)
Latinos in
All is not lost in
The New Swing States: Colorado
Electoral Votes: 9
Vote 2004: 52: 47 Bush
Party ID: 38 Rep, 29 Dem, 33 Ind
Governor: Bill Owens (R)
Colorado has recently been the unlikely scene of several big Democratic victories. Democrat Ken Salazar was elected to the US Senate in 2004, and his brother was elected to the US House in a mostly rural district. The state Democratic parties also captured both houses of the Colorado legislature in 2004, for the first time in decades. There are rumors that Mr. Salazar may run for the open governorship in 2006, with Bill Owens term limited and likely seeking the presidency.
These positive trends are amplified by Colorado's changing demographics. The state already has a Latino population of 18 percent, and that is rapidly rising. In 2004, however, only 8 percent of the voters were Latino. John Kerry captured a very impressive 68% them. Any increase either in voter registration among Latino voters or the total Latino population should prove to be a major help for the Democrats. The fact that the highest profile Latino in politics represents the state in the Senate as a Democract should help keep that bloc Democratic as well.
The demographic changes in Colorado are also occuring at a rapid pace, with a healthy 6% annual population growth rate. At this rate Colorado's population is set to increase nearly 15% by 2008. The new arrivals have a stong chance of being Latino Democratic voters, and most of this population growth is occuring in the Denver/Boulder metropolitian area where Democrats are already strong. The strong rural support for the Salazar brothers may make voters outside this area more likely to consider a Democratic president as well.
Colorado last voted Democratic in a presidental election in 1992 when a large vote for Ross Perot gave the state to Bill Clinton. Recent Democratic victories at both the State and Federal level, however, and the state's strongly Democratic and fastly growing Latino population should put it in play in 2008.
Monday, March 21, 2005
The New Swing States: Arizona
Electoral Votes: 10
Vote 2004: 55:44 Bush
Party ID: 44 Rep., 30 Dem., 26 Ind.
Governor: Janet Naplotanio (D)
Arizona has historically been one of the most conservative states in America, even producing the most conservative presidental candidate ever, Barry Goldwater in 1964. However, demographic trends and the fact that Arizonians elected a Democratic governor in 2002. Although several polls held the race close in 2004, Kerry lost by a disapointing 11 points. Despite that, on current trends Arizona is very much in play in 2008.
Arizona's conservativm is quite distinct from that of George Bush's. Arizonians value primarily tax-cutting, budget balancing fiscal conservatives, and not so much the Southern moral conservatives in power now. Should the Republicans nominate another Southern moralizer, such as a Bill Frist, Arizonians may warm to a fiscally resposible Democrat.
Demographic trends also favour a Democratic candidate. Arizona has also seen explosive growth in its Latino population in the past few years, and assuming the Democrats keep their historic advantage among minority groups this should put the state in play. Latinos made up 12% of Arizona's voters in 2004, and they voted for Kerry by 13 points. Latinos, however make up 25% of Arizona's voting age population and that number is set to rise rapidly. If Democrats can make a concerted effort to register latino voters in the state, that alone may win them the election. A Latino candidate at the top of the ticket may even expand their margins within the growing population.
Arizona's growing reputation as a retirement destination may also contribute to a Democratic victory in 2008. Arizona's seniors went to Bush in 2004, but by a smaller margin than the state as a whole. Many of the new retirees are from Blue states such as California and New York, and the Republicans may have a national problem on their hands with seniors in 2008 thanks to their fiddling with Social Security.
The Democrat's bigest ally may not be the particular demographic changes themselves, but the astonishing speed at which they are occuring. Arizona has a population growth rate almost triple the Unites States's average. At these rate Arizona's population will grow greatly by 2008, and many of the new arrivals will be Democratic voters. The challenge in Arizona is to assure these new arrivals will register and vote in the state. It is likely that the number of people who wanted Kerry as president was greater than 44 percent, but many of these people were not registered or did not vote as the Democrat's get out the vote effort was concentrated in Ohio, Flordia, and the other swing states. A good indication as to where the state is headed should come in 2006 when Governor Napolitano is up for reelection.
Drilling the Arctic
Despite enviromentaist's arguments to the contary, it is actually rather unclear what the effects upon wildlife in the refuge will be. In fact it is unclear weather there will be any drilling at all. Although it is assumed that any oil there may be recovered profitably, the site has not been surveyed in decades. It may turn out that the massive expenses of doing heavy industral work thousands of miles away from any major city is just unprofitable, even at today's high oil prices.
Either way its amazing that our government would actually allow oil exploration, the dirtiest of industrial activites, in an area specifically designed to protect wildlife.