Election 2008 Map

The New Swing States: Nevada

Electoral Votes: 5
Vote 2004: 51:48 Bush
Party ID: 39 Rep, 35 Dem, 26 Ind
Governor: Kenny Guin (R)

Nevada is like a fast paced version of the changes occurring in the Southwest. Its three year rate of population growth is an astonishing 12.2%, almost four times the national average. At this rate Nevada's population is set to increase greatly by 2008.

Latinos here make up about a fifth of the population, but are underrepresented at about a tenth of voters. They went for John Kerry by a healthy 60% in 2004. A concerted effort to register Latinos alone probably would have given Democrats the state in 2004, and should be a top priority for 2008.

Nevada's income demographics are interesting compared to its neighbors. In most states George Bush has won over the poorest voters with social issues, and the richest voters with his economic policies, leaving the Democrats to fight for the middle classes. Nevada however looks more like old-school economic warfare with John Kerry winning by 20 points among the poorest income groups, splitting the middle classes, and loosing the rich badly. This tendency to vote on economic interests should help the Democrats, especially as many of the recent arrivals are poorer immigrants working in the leisure industries.

The New Swing States: New Mexico

Electoral Votes: 5
Vote 2004: 50:49 Bush
Party ID: Rep 33, Dem 40, Ind 27
Governor: Bill Richardson (D)

New Mexico is set apart from its neighbors to the north and west in many ways, but like the others it is a crucial swing state in 2008. New Mexico's population growth rate is actually lower than the national average, assuring that the demographics in this state divided more evenly than Florida won't change much in four years. And New Mexico already has the high percentage of Latinos residing in the state that its neighbors will see soon, the highest in the nation in fact at 42%.

Latinos in New Mexico, however, are quite different from the populations currently building in Arizona, Colorado, and Nevada. Many Latino families here are not recent immigrants at all, in fact a great number have roots in the state pre-dating American settlement. The conventional wisdom is that this demographic is less likely to vote Democratic because the immediate issues of immigration and poverty are not as important to them as recent arrivals, and therefore they are free to vote based on social issues, such as abortion. This wisdom is pretty much right, with John Kerry winning Latinos in New Mexico by half the margin as a nation as a whole, and actually loosing women in the state to George Bush (presumably because of New Mexican Latino women's conservative moral values.) It is also unsettling that New Mexico in 2004 showed the reversal of the national age trends, with John Kerry gaining more support among older voters and George Bush among the young.

All is not lost in New Mexico, however. The vote here was closer than anywhere in the nation in 2004, and much of John Kerry's loss here can be put upon the candidate himself. A Latino on the ticket in 2008 would most likely swing the state democratic. Governor Bill Richardson is the popular Latino governor here, and despite the fact that he could not carry the state for John Kerry, if Governor Richardson is on the 2008 ticket, New Mexico is certain to be in the Democratic column.

The New Swing States: Colorado

Electoral Votes: 9
Vote 2004: 52: 47 Bush
Party ID: 38 Rep, 29 Dem, 33 Ind
Governor: Bill Owens (R)

Colorado has recently been the unlikely scene of several big Democratic victories. Democrat Ken Salazar was elected to the US Senate in 2004, and his brother was elected to the US House in a mostly rural district. The state Democratic parties also captured both houses of the Colorado legislature in 2004, for the first time in decades. There are rumors that Mr. Salazar may run for the open governorship in 2006, with Bill Owens term limited and likely seeking the presidency.

These positive trends are amplified by Colorado's changing demographics. The state already has a Latino population of 18 percent, and that is rapidly rising. In 2004, however, only 8 percent of the voters were Latino. John Kerry captured a very impressive 68% them. Any increase either in voter registration among Latino voters or the total Latino population should prove to be a major help for the Democrats. The fact that the highest profile Latino in politics represents the state in the Senate as a Democract should help keep that bloc Democratic as well.

The demographic changes in Colorado are also occuring at a rapid pace, with a healthy 6% annual population growth rate. At this rate Colorado's population is set to increase nearly 15% by 2008. The new arrivals have a stong chance of being Latino Democratic voters, and most of this population growth is occuring in the Denver/Boulder metropolitian area where Democrats are already strong. The strong rural support for the Salazar brothers may make voters outside this area more likely to consider a Democratic president as well.

Colorado last voted Democratic in a presidental election in 1992 when a large vote for Ross Perot gave the state to Bill Clinton. Recent Democratic victories at both the State and Federal level, however, and the state's strongly Democratic and fastly growing Latino population should put it in play in 2008.

The New Swing States: Arizona



Electoral Votes: 10
Vote 2004: 55:44 Bush
Party ID: 44 Rep., 30 Dem., 26 Ind.
Governor: Janet Naplotanio (D)

Arizona has historically been one of the most conservative states in America, even producing the most conservative presidental candidate ever, Barry Goldwater in 1964. However, demographic trends and the fact that Arizonians elected a Democratic governor in 2002. Although several polls held the race close in 2004, Kerry lost by a disapointing 11 points. Despite that, on current trends Arizona is very much in play in 2008.

Arizona's conservativm is quite distinct from that of George Bush's. Arizonians value primarily tax-cutting, budget balancing fiscal conservatives, and not so much the Southern moral conservatives in power now. Should the Republicans nominate another Southern moralizer, such as a Bill Frist, Arizonians may warm to a fiscally resposible Democrat.

Demographic trends also favour a Democratic candidate. Arizona has also seen explosive growth in its Latino population in the past few years, and assuming the Democrats keep their historic advantage among minority groups this should put the state in play. Latinos made up 12% of Arizona's voters in 2004, and they voted for Kerry by 13 points. Latinos, however make up 25% of Arizona's voting age population and that number is set to rise rapidly. If Democrats can make a concerted effort to register latino voters in the state, that alone may win them the election. A Latino candidate at the top of the ticket may even expand their margins within the growing population.

Arizona's growing reputation as a retirement destination may also contribute to a Democratic victory in 2008. Arizona's seniors went to Bush in 2004, but by a smaller margin than the state as a whole. Many of the new retirees are from Blue states such as California and New York, and the Republicans may have a national problem on their hands with seniors in 2008 thanks to their fiddling with Social Security.

The Democrat's bigest ally may not be the particular demographic changes themselves, but the astonishing speed at which they are occuring. Arizona has a population growth rate almost triple the Unites States's average. At these rate Arizona's population will grow greatly by 2008, and many of the new arrivals will be Democratic voters. The challenge in Arizona is to assure these new arrivals will register and vote in the state. It is likely that the number of people who wanted Kerry as president was greater than 44 percent, but many of these people were not registered or did not vote as the Democrat's get out the vote effort was concentrated in Ohio, Flordia, and the other swing states. A good indication as to where the state is headed should come in 2006 when Governor Napolitano is up for reelection.






Drilling the Arctic

It appears that the Bush administration will get its wish, and drilling will be allowed in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The administration has argured that this is an essential step to assuring that America will become less dependant on Middle Eastern oil. Of course rather mild measures at energy efficency, such as raising CAFE standards for automobiles or subsidizing energy efficeent appliances would be far more effective.
Despite enviromentaist's arguments to the contary, it is actually rather unclear what the effects upon wildlife in the refuge will be. In fact it is unclear weather there will be any drilling at all. Although it is assumed that any oil there may be recovered profitably, the site has not been surveyed in decades. It may turn out that the massive expenses of doing heavy industral work thousands of miles away from any major city is just unprofitable, even at today's high oil prices.
Either way its amazing that our government would actually allow oil exploration, the dirtiest of industrial activites, in an area specifically designed to protect wildlife.

Democracy in the World

In the last four years there have been many new democracies created, which is obviously good news for America and the world. One might think that Iraq and Afghanistan are the two best examples of this new trend, and justification for the huge nation-building expenses the Bush administration has spent. However the democratic progress these nations have made pales in comparison to some others, such as Ukraine, Georgia, and Serbia, that have made their transitions non-violently and without overt foreign interference. It does indeed seem that Ameria's dollars would be better spent on democracy and civil society promoting programs to provoke a democratic revolution from within, than by invading autocratic nations outright.